“A nuclear-powered submarine will be Australia’s contribution to the collective security of the neighbourhood in which we live.” With these words, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles clearly underlined that Australia has its Pacific neighbours front of mind when it comes to Defence strategy.
While Australia’s interactions with the region are not limited to military activities, an over $300 billion military investment reminds us of the significance of this aspect to measure influence in the Pacific.
Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka described Australia as “a stronger friend in the area” following the Aukus deal. But Pacific Island countries as a whole remain a focal point for different sources of influence, notably military. According to Grant Newsham, a retired US Colonel specialising in the Pacific region, western powers should counter China’s influence in the region with their own rather sooner than later, “or it will one day be too late”.
Today, the Pacific Islands are strategic partners for Western Countries such as the United States and Australia. They notably stand on strategic trade routes that the West wants to keep open, notably in the case of an extended conflict over Taiwan. In fact, China is seen by them as wanting to gather larger influence in the broader region.
“Aukus is 100% about deterrence” reminds Ashley Westerman who reports on Asia-Pacific issues. And this deterrence from Australia, the US, and the UK can involve Pacific Island nations. “Practically, they probably don’t need [the Pacific Island countries’ approval]” said Westerman. However, showing that those nations are comfortable with this deal would give it more legitimacy, and underline that the Pacific neighbours are not worried that this is just a hawkish show of strength. In a shared ocean, “it’s the right thing to do”.
But it still shows that when it comes to military affairs, Pacific Islands power is limited. In fact, most of the Pacific Island countries are reliant on foreign nations for their security due to their comparatively low population. Papua New Guinea (PNG), Fiji, New Zealand, and Australia are the only countries in the Pacific Islands region with a Defence force superior to 1,000 active members (with 3,600, 4,000, 9,000, and 60,000 respectively). They are also the four most populous countries in the region. Most other nations have to find military partnerships, or “protectors who will allow them to preserve a degree – often a high degree – of sovereignty and independence”, according to Col. Newsham.
It appears that only five countries in Oceania don’t rely on those major players. As a result, those countries are of more interest to China. The country’s biggest recipient of Chinese military aid in the region is PNG, and China locked a security deal with Solomon Islands in 2022. Although Australia remains a security partner for the country, this agreement does mention the deployment of Chinese police forces to contain civil unrest if requested by local authorities. In the long term, Western powers are worried about a potential Chinese military base some 2,000km off the coast of Australia.
As such, the Pacific Islands receive significant military attention from foreign nations willing to assert and build a presence in the region. The international waters of the Pacific regularly see movements of military ships. A Chinese ship crossed the Australian Exclusive Economic Zone in 2022 and countries such as Palau have accused Sino naval forces of entering their own. In fact, Palau has extended the US an offer to create a military base on their territory and counter China’s presence. Indeed, Palau’s 604,000 km2 EEZ is difficult to control with limited security forces. The US, which desire to mitigate China’s economic and military influence, already has bases in 5 Pacific territories including Guam and Hawaii.
Australia and China are also building military influence in the region. A part of Australia’s Pacific step up is to enhance security in the region. And it is evidenced through infrastructure building. The Commonwealth currently supports 12 military projects across 15 Pacific nations, with funding and imported engineering expertise. Those projects are centred on defensive capabilities and the control of territorial waters. They include police barracks, border outposts, or naval infrastructures…
On the other hand, Pacific Island nations receive mostly monetary donations from China. This indirect help being very concrete for Pacific countries. China’s US$ 4.3 million grant to Fiji in 2018 constituted 6% of the archipelago’s military expenditures. And this is why the Solomon Islands’ deal was a new step, different from the usual grants for military infrastructures and equipment.
According to Grant Newsham, this Chinese involvement is just the beginning. “The Chinese fully intend to have military access and presence throughout the region when the time is right”. And Newsham says it would therefore justify a step up from Western powers, “or it will one day be too late”.
This step up might be shaping up under common defence activities between Pacific Islands nations and Western powers. Defence Cooperation programs already exist, involving the United States, New Zealand, and Australia to support their allies to “protect their sovereignty” and ensure stability in the region. As such, PNG forces participate in common exercises with their Australian counterparts. The latter also contribute to training foreign armies and sending equipment.
Beyond those partnerships, the idea of more integrated cooperation in the Pacific makes its way politically. Labor’s platform for the 2022 election mentioned the establishment of a Pacific Island Defence School with the goal to develop “training programs for members of Pacific Island country defence and security forces”. This School has not seen the light of day yet but it is a sign that military cooperation can be extended in the region.
Australia is already involved in security and defence agreements. Pat Conroy is Australia’s Minister for the Pacific.
Besides infrastructure building and military partnerships, a good way to measure military influence is to look at the multiple donations Pacific Island nations receive. Today, the Pacific Islands’ biggest donors of military aid are Australia, the US, and China. Over the period 2000-2020, those countries respectively contributed the equivalent of $963, $52, and $41 million in military aid according to Xiao Lang’s research. Those different figures can be explained by Australia’s being a closer geographical neighbour with more joint partnerships in the region. According to Xiao Lang, a contributor to an international research institute, China’s figures also tend to be underestimated. The country does not communicate its numbers in an aggregated form and some of this military aid such as military training is difficult to calculate. Overall, Pacific countries are reaping the benefit of these donations, wherever they might come from. “It is a race, it absolutely is a race”, said Ashley Westerman.
“It’s a race, it absolutely is a race [for influence in the Pacific]”
This military aid is an efficient way for Pacific Island countries to have military equipment. They have a strategic position and a diplomatic power to leverage in order to receive equipment such as surveillance vessels or military trucks. Interestingly enough, Micronesia’s three boats and its unique government aircraft stem exclusively from Australian and Chinese donations.
And this battle for military influence is far from over. Countries are still competing for influence in the Pacific Islands. Australia under the Pacific step up, or China as a part of its Belt and Road initiative. The Commonwealth has pledged $2.1 billion of investment in the region over the next 30 years. China’s intentions are more unclear, but the country is a player to be reckoned with. When Solomon Islands received 13 vehicles and multiple rifles from Australia in November 2022, the local police force also received 52 vehicles from a Chinese donation soon after. Here underlining an ongoing race, where Pacific countries stand as central players. Solomon’s PM strategy of being “friend of everyone, enemy to none” can be seen as a way to reap the benefits of this competition.
Solomon Islands and other countries that don’t officially rely on Western powers for defence affairs are at the heart of this battle for military influence. While every Pacific Island nation can receive donations from different players, the establishment of more concrete military activities is likely to involve those specific countries.
And bigger players are still paying attention to the different influence movements at play in the region. Especially as influence is difficult to measure by just looking at past figures. Not all countries communicate the same way and the ways of influence, notably through military donations are some that can evolve quickly. Today, China’s influence remains mostly economical, and Western powers seem to have an interest in keeping it that way. Notably with the Aukus deterrence, aiming at keeping the region safe according to Richard Marles. And in the end, with the Defence of Pacific Islands nations being so interconnected with other countries, military influence will remain an important aspect of Pacific Islanders’ relations with Western powers and China.
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